Ensberg's Mysterious Injury

The Yankees no longer have to worry about how to make room for Alberto Gonzalez on the roster. With Jeter being out a few games, Alberto was called up to fill in at short stop. Fortunately for the Yankees, Morgan Ensberg suddenly developed a problem with his left ankle and will have to go on the 15 day DL. This conveniently makes room for Gonzalez without having to option Shelley Duncan back down to the minors.

Molina is scheduled to catch tonight. Posada has not been placed on the DL with his sore shoulder and will be available as a back up catcher if the need arises.

This scoop was reported by Peter Abraham over at the LoHud Yankees Blog.

Edit: It turns out that this rumor was completely false. I feel like I've been Rick Rolled. Abraham is relaying that Shelley Duncan did indeed get optioned down to AAA.

Brian Bruney is getting the start in place of Ian Kennedy.

Posada for Hall of Fame?

A recent discussion came up on another great Yankees blog, This Purist Bleeds Pinstripes, and the idea of Jorge Posada being a Hall of Fame player intrigued me. I went over to Baseball Reference (.com) to check out some stats of other HOF catchers to see where Posada stacks up. I looked at two Yankee catchers and a few well known modern guys. The list included: Bill Dickey, Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk and Gary Carter.

This is just an informal look at this point and for a more accurate analysis I would use a wider range of statistics and compare to every HOF catcher to date. For now, I think the data presented paints a fairly reasonable picture.

Let's take a look at how Jorge measures up to his competition in the Hall.

I emailed my thoughts to friend Tim who is much baseball-smarter than I am, a die-hard sabermetrician, and a decent baseball player (catcher). He had some different takes on the analysis and I'll throw some of his comments in here in italics. Note, I hit him up at work and so he didn't have as much time as I did to research the numbers, but the guy is a walking encyclopedia of baseball knowledge.

Offense:

	#Seas	OBP	SLG	OPS+	HR	RC	RC/G	EQA*
Posada	14	.380	.478	124	218	899	6.5	.299
Bench	17	.342	.476	126	389	1239	5.9	.289
Fisk	24	.341	.457	117	376	1378	5.5	.282
Carter	19	.335	.439	115	324	1184	5.1	.279
Dickey	17	.382	.486	127	202	1165	7.0	.292
Berra	19	.348	.482	125	358	1265	6.0	.285

*Equivalent Average, adjusted for all time (Baseball Prospectus)

I threw in RC (runs created) and RC/G (runs created per game) on a lark, although I'm not sure how much weight I would give either of those stats.

Baseball Prospectus also provides another stat, WARP (wins above replacement player) that provide some useful insights, but need to be looked at on a season by season basis. Johnny Bench had some monster seasons with WARPs between 10.6 and 12.0 during his 4 best years. He sets the bar for modern offense among this group. Posada's best season comes in at 9.1.

OPS+ (adjusted on base percentage plus slugging) is the best number here as far as league corrections go and probably the most comparable. Posada stacks up reasonably well to these other hall of famers, hitting better than guys like Fisk and Carter and on par with old-timers like Dickey and Berra.

Tim points out that Carter hit in a deficit era and if corrected for would probably be more in line with Posada. Carlton Fisk had a lot of career ups and downs, and career stats for him are misleading. Bench and Berra outclass Jorge in the offensive department in Tim's opinion.

He astutely points out that Jorge's numbers right now don't include his decline years. Yogi's numbers are affected by decline years and if you only tallied the stats up to the same point in his career that Jorge is at, Yogi would have even better numbers. I think we can safely expect to see decent numbers from Posada in the next year or two, but they won't match his 2007 output. Hence the career averages and rates will start to creep down.

Post Season Offense:

	Appearances	OBP	SLG
Posada	23 PS Series	.352	.379
Bench	10 PSS	.335	.527
Fisk	3 PSS	.355	.407
Carter	5 PSS	.320	.466
Dickey	8 World Series	.329	.379
Berra	14 WS	.359	.452

Sub-par post season performance won't keep him out of the hall, but making a splash in the series can put an extra shine on your resume. Nothing here for Posada that really impresses, however.

Defense: (catching stats only)

	Seasons	PB	WP	SB	CS	SB%
Posada	14	123	414	806	337	71%
Bench	17	94	446	610	469	57
Fisk	24	129	428	1302	664	66
Carter	19	84	464	1498	810	65
Dickey	17	76
Berra	19 (9*)	76	85*	154*	141*	52

*Only 9 years of data is available for Yogi's SB and CS.

Defense is a weak point for Posada, who's arm is a well known target for base stealers. In 2007 he led the league in stolen base attempts. His stolen base percentage is usually right around or below average for league starters.

Comparison statistics with players of different eras aren't all that useful when it comes to stolen bases, and so it can be more helpful to look at other current players. Ivan Rodriguez has a 53% SB%, Jason Varitek 74%, Bengie Molina 67%, Ramon Herndandez 69%. Ivan is one of the best defensive catchers when it comes to throwing out runners. The others shown are veterans who have been around a while and are in a similar range as Posada. Younger arms like Yadier Molina, Gerald Laird, and Kenji Johima had 2007 SB% of 46%, 47%, and 60% respectively. Jorge is certainly quite a bit off the mark when it comes to the top defensive arms.

Tims take: Posada is adequate but not good. He was a better blocker early on and his arm has been failing lately. Bench was a defensive powerhouse and Pudge is also a good current standard. Tim used several expletives to further drive home the point of Johnny Bench being the bar against which all others are measured defensively.

Other Numbers:
Posada has been fairly healthy most of his career, making a decent number of starts. His overall durability adds credence to the notion of his hall-worthiness. He has never one a gold glove, unlike others (Bench 10, Fisk 1, Carter 3) and has only won the MVP twice. With guys like Ivan Rodriguez around, Posada has had tough competition along the way. His post season performance hasn't netted him any series MVPs, but he's been playing with quite a few other future HOFers.

Baseball Prospectus' take from 2007 puts Posada solidly in the hunt based on their JAWS scores. When it comes to evaluating HOF candidates, however, I don't like breaking down too many factors into a single number.

Final Thoughts:
One important number right now for Jorge is 14. The number of seasons he's been around. He still needs to have a few more productive years to solidify his place as a legitimate hall of fame candidate. If he can get at least 3 more years and still maintain offensive production, I think he is in. If something were to happen and his career ended now, I'm not so sure. His 2007 season was spectacular, but at age 36 he's unlikely to repeat and very likely to see significant drops in performance over the next few years.

Tims analysis: Posada doesn't have Fisk or Carter's longevity, Bench's total package, or the bat of guys like Berra. I disagree with his offense assessment slightly, but agree that Jorge needs a few more good years to pad his career numbers and gain a sense of longevity and durability. After a second round of discussion we reached a consesus opinion:

Right now: borderline; After a few more good years: lock.

Disappointing Outing For Hughes

Phil Hughes wasn't dialed in today and the quiet Yankee bats did little to help him out. Phil lasted 3 innings, giving up 3 runs on 6 hits, walking 4 and striking out 2. In defense of the Yankee starter, the umpire had an odd and inconsistent strike zone. Phil wasn't able to adjust and had poor control in his limited outing.

Ross Ohlendorf came in and pitched 3, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits. Billy Traber and LaTroy Hawkins each pitched a scoreless inning. Latroy performed a little better than he has previously and perhaps the absence of booing Yankee fans helped.

There were no offensive standouts today and Alex Rodriguez struck out in all 4 appearances at the plate.

The Yankees defense was rather poor today and Kansas City stole 5 bases. Wilson Betemit couldn't handle any of Posada's throws on a couple of pitchouts, and Jason Giambi had trouble getting the ball out of his glove when a runner should have been picked off going from 1st to 2nd. In the late innings Benji Molina had come in and made a nice throw to get Gload attempting to steal 3rd.

Posada left the game with a sore shoulder and might be heading to the DL. The Yankees will be sorely missing his bat.

The Yankees are going to have to put bigger numbers up on the board if they hope to have a chance of winning this season with 4 unpredictable starters (Wang being the only one who has shown consistency).

AL East News: Dice-K was sharp in Boston's 5-0 win over Kenny Rogers and the struggling Tigers. Manny Delcarmen had settled down and pitched 1.1 innings to set up Okajima. Youkilis had 3 hits and 2 RBIs to lead the offense.

Baltimore continues to win with a solid outing from Brian Burres who gave up 1 run in 6 innings of work. Baltimore outscored the Rangers 8-1 and 1st baseman Aubrey Huff went 4 for 4 scoring 1 and driving in 4.

Toronto and Oakland are tied 6-6 in the top of the 6th and Tampa Bay is trailing Seattle, down 4-3.

Terrific Game for Mussina

Mike Mussina brought his "A" game today, pitching a very solid 6 innings giving up 1 run on 2 hits, struck out 3 and walked 1. Mussina looked in command right from the start. We all know he can pitch extremely well, but you don't always know which Moose is going to show up for a game. Let's hope for more outings like tonight.

Brian Bruney delivered the goods giving up no hits but hitting one batter.

I've done a lot of Farnsworth bashing up to this point and so I'd like to give him the credit he's due. Farnsworth's stuff was working tonight. Kyle retired the side in order, striking out one. He had his fastball coming in at 93 mph, but he pitched a smart game mixing up the sinker, slider, 2-seamer and 4-seamer nicely. Nice job Kyle.

Hawkins was his usual scary self. Fortunately he didn't give up any runs but he put batters on 2nd and 3rd. The fans were quick to boo him when he got in trouble which didn't do anything for his confidence.

This was the type of offensive game you've come to expect from the Yankees. Bobby Abreu had the hot bat, going 3 for 3 with 3 runs and 2 RBIs. He showed some speed churning out a stand up triple. A-Rod, Matsui and Cano all had timely hits to drive in runs.

Derek Jeter strained a quadriceps muscle hustling down the first base line and left the game before the 3rd inning. Wilson Betemit is not the kind of guy you want playing on a long term basis because of his lackluster offense. Hopefully Jeter will be back soon.

Morgan Ensberg got his first hit as a Yankee tonight.

AL East Roundup - Baltimore On Top

Yes, that's right the Baltimore Orioles, pre-season favorites to finish last in the division, are sitting alone at the top of the standings. The Boston Red Sox, who many thought would finish first, are in last place. It's still early and things will settle down as the season wears on, but still, it's quite amusing.

The Yankees offense will definitely start scoring a lot more runs before long. The big question is will it be enough to keep their pitching staff afloat. I think what you've seen is what you'll get from the Yankees rotation the rest of the year. Pettitte will have better days, but he'll also have bad days and will miss starts due to injury. Wang will once again pitch consistently well. Kennedy will certainly have better days but will bomb frequently in his first full season as a starter. Phil the franchise will throw masterpieces from time to time, but expect him to get roughed up as well. Mussina will give up 4-5 runs or every outing and will need help from the offense. Joba will work his way into the rotation eventually. Farnsworth and Hawkins will continue to give up runs.

The Red Sox have hit well, but haven't been able to put together sequences to give them runs. They'll start tacking more points up on the board and will right the ship. It seemed to me they were the victim of some uncharacteristic errors and poor fielding this week. Toronto has been playing very well and definitely served the Sox a harsh wake up call. Beckett will get back into form and start lasting longer, giving Sox fans the quality starts they've been expencting. Lester will have his ups and downs. Dice-K continues to show he's the real deal Buchholz is going to have some growing pains. MDC might just be Boston's version of Kyle Farnsworth. The good news for the Sox is that they are playing winless Detroit next. Maybe Kenny Rogers will help the BoSox bats get hot.

Toronto has been on their game. Starting pitching has looked solid and their bats have delivered in the clutch. I'm thinking that they're going to give someone quite a battle for second place in the East.

Tampa had some strong outings against the Yankees, taking advantage of sloppy pitching and throwing some great games themselves. Despite their impressive start, I'm not buying into the hype or the few predictions that they're going to win 90+ games this year.

I don't have any explanation for Baltimore's success so far, other than to say somehow they score more runs than the other guy. It won't take long for them to find their place back at the bottom of the standings.

Help Wanted

I've updated the links and blogroll section of this site (over in the righthand column) with some other Yankees blogs.

If you know of any good Yankees resources on the web, leave a comment and I'll add it to the list. If I've left out your blog, let me know and I'll add it!

I think in the future I'll start doing some reviews and commentaries on my favorite baseball sites, giving a more in-depth look at the content provided. There's a lot of great stuff out on the web that can sometimes be hard to find. Hopefully by doing posts, posting links and drawing attention to various sites will help people get connected!