Ugly Opener

The Yankees two biggest offseason acquisitions came up empty in their Yankee debuts and the pitching staff was abysmal. CC Sabathia had no control over his pitches and had frequent communication issues with Posada.

8 hits, 6 runs over 4.1 innings for CC with no strikeouts. Albaladeho lasted 1.1 innings without giving up a run but Coke and Bruney got shelled. Mark Texiera went 0 for 4.

The offense had it’s moments. Brett Gardner had some flash, and with Jeter hitting behind him moved around the bases allowing Damon to drive in the run. Swisher came through in a clutch pinch hit. Posada provided some pop reminding us all why he was missed so much last year.

In the end, a 10-5 loss is not the way you want to start out the season and fans will have to wait to see the fruits of their offseason spending. It will be interesting to hear what CC has to say. I have no idea why Sabathia had a heating pad on his abdomen and right side between innings. The Yankees kept trotting him out there so I doubt it is anything serious.

I get the impression, despite the fact that these guys are all major leaguers, they still get opening day jitters. That’s what I’m chalking everything up to – jitters.

Expectations for Sabathia

So the big man has a big contract. What can New York fans expect? If there is anything close to a crystal ball in this sport it’s a few choice publications, including the Bill James Handbook and the annual Baseball Prospectus guide. They provide predictions for a player’s overall statistical performance that is surprisingly accurate on a consistent basis.

Both of these peg CC as a 16 game winner with an ERA in the range of 3.40 – 3.5 which should please Yankees fans.

The one shortcoming of these predictions is they can’t predict big, season altering injuries and so we’re working on the assumption that Sabathia stays healthy.

They also neglect the idea that some people aren’t ready for the pressure of playing in New York. Milwaukee and Cleveland aren’t the same as the Big Apple. Although he’s played in smaller markets, he’s been in the spotlight for a while and after his trade last season, he know the pressure was on and he delivered.

I think the Yankees have a very good shot at making a strong post season run and CC will eat it up.

I’m going out on a limb to say that the projections are a tad on the conservative side and that CC will get 18 wins. The Yankees defense will be improved compared with last year, and their offense should be improved as well. These things make for a happy starting pitcher. I’m looking for Sabathia to live up to expectations and be the consistent top man that the Yankees paid for.

CC Coming to Town

Finally this morning the news broke that CC Sabathia will be joining the New York Yankees. Apparently the deal is for 7 years and 160 million, approximately.

This is a big deal for the Yankees and Yankee fans. CC was dragging his feet and each day that went by it was looking more and more like he would sign somewhere else. The Yanks now officially have a healthy ace to lead off the rotation. If Wang stays healthy he’s their number two and Joba will be number three.

That leaves at least two more spots to fill. There have been rumors before the CC news that the Yanks were stepping up talks with Burnett and Lowe and that they had also been talking to Ben Sheets. The last I heard was that a better offer was made to Burnett and that the Yanks were close to a deal with Lowe. I don’t know how things will change now that Sabathia has been signed, but expect the Yankees to sign at least one of these guys.

Personally, I think Lowe should be the number one priority at this point. He’s the best value out there and the most consistent of the bunch. I’d look at Sheets a little more than Burnett as well. There hasn’t been much word on the Yankees and Andy Pettitte, and all the news concerning him is about talks with other teams.

I think the Yanks will try to sign two more starting pitchers, won’t go after Texiera hard any more, and will still shop around Cano, Cabrera and Kennedy for a center fielder or a utility infielder.

Little Going On, and it May Hurt the Yanks

There really hasn’t been much to report or comment on lately, which is what I’m going to comment on. No major signings, no major official offers, nothing. The rumor mill has been spinning and things don’t sound so hot for the Yankees right now. The Angels are rumored to be close to offering CC Sabathia a big time deal that comes close to the Yankees offer. From what I’ve read, the Yankees are going to have to significantly beat another teams offer to lure CC away from a team that’s higher on his list of preferences.

The Yankees’ rumored offers for AJ Burnett and Derek Lowe were apparently quite off the mark, with one wanting a longer deal and the other wanting more money.

Several teams have expressed interest in Mark Texiera and there certainly will be competition for his services. Boston’s interest is just a show and a ploy to drive up the price for the Yankees, but rumors of interest from other teams is more likely accurate.

Andy Pettitte has talked to the Dodgers, most likely trying to keep his options open if the Yankees don’t sign him and also in an effort to light a fire under the Yankees.

Once the dominos start to fall, there will be a rapid succession of signings. Most of the big deals probably center around CC Sabathia, as he is likely the biggest target out there. After he signs, the others will quickly follow.  If the Yankees sign him, they won’t go all in on Texiera and will try to get the best deal out of either Burnett or Lowe. If CC goes somewhere else, the Yankees will make Texiera a big offer and will turn up the heat trying to sign both Lowe and Burnett (or possibly making a trade for Peavey if he’s still available).

What could set things off kilter would be a team making a surprisingly big offer to someone like Burnett or Lowe before CC signs. The Yanks won’t sign anyone until CC is off the table and other clubs scrambling to get the remaining free agent pitchers available could up their offers quickly and the Yanks could get left out in the cold.

I think the prudent strategy would be to aggressively go after the players you want all at once, and do it before too many other teams get close to a deal. I’m a big fan of setting deadlines and letting players know they have a finite period of time to accept an offer (a reasonable period like a week or so). If a player says no, move on to the next target. The Yankees desperately need starting pitching, as do a few other teams. There are a few big names available this year, but the supply is far behind the demand.

I don’t expect any big deals today, and with Thanksgiving tomorrow, things will slow down for a while but I expect the first big deal to go down before Christmas.

Weekly Recap

Last week we finally had some action from the Yankees giving us a glimpse into what the future holds.

1. Darrel Rasner was sold to Japan. This one seemed a little odd to me at first. I liked Rasner and thought he did an excellent job for the Yankees when they needed him. He started out strong and had a very rough finish, but I thought he had value as a long reliever. Unfortunately, I get the feeling that teams in major league baseball just don’t see the need for long relievers any more. Joe Girardi last year made it clear that he didn’t want to waste roster space with a long reliever if he didn’t have to. In the end, I think this move came down to something Rasner really wanted to do, and the Yankees let him. Best of luck Darrel.

2. CC Sabathia given a huge offer. There have been a few complaints coming out of the Brewers organization that the Yankees overbid for Sabathia, but the Yankees have the money to spend and don’t want to waste time getting the players they covet the most. I don’t see the Sabathia offer as being too extravagant. A little more than he probably deserves but that’s exactly what you expect from the Yankees. There have also been rumors that the MLBPA has been pressuring CC to sign the deal to help push up contract prices for players, but that claim sounds dubious at best. I predict that CC will talk to one or two other clubs early this week and be signed with the Yanks by the weeks end.

3. The Yanks want to go after Lowe and Burnett. Hank Steinbrenner let the cat out of the bag that the Yankees were going to be making offers to three big name pitchers, not just one or two. Most people seem to think that the Yankees are interested in signing two quality free agent starters, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more than that if the team can come to terms with the players it wants. The Yankees’ rotation was beat up last year and injuries took their toll. Joba couldn’t handle the physical stress of being thrown into a full time starting job at the end of last season and it’s still questionable how many innings he can throw this year. Mussina might not want to come back and the Yankees might not want Pettitte back. The most likely scenario is that the Bombers pick up two new arms, but don’t rule out them getting all three of their targets.

4. Yanks acquire Swisher from White Sox. Finally Wilson Betemit is jettisoned. He was a drain on the team more than anything else. His offensive production was abysmal and his defense was suspect as well. Joe Girardi insisted on giving him playing time rather than getting young prospects the at bats and innings they deserved. Marquez had some potential but wasn’t necessarily a guaranteed big league player. Kanekoa Texiera has potential and could possibly end up playing at Yankee stadium some day and his inclusion in the deal is a little surprising. Nick Swisher showed potential early in his career and then went and had an awful year this past season. He’s billed as a Jason Giambi type of hitter, but not quite as good (which, considering Giambi’s performance last year, is pretty scary). The hope is that last year was a fluke and that Swisher will continue to develop and reach the potential many thought he once had. His defensive skills are a significant improvement over last year and I laud the Yankees for placing a little emphasis on defense rather than just offense. Swisher also has the flexibility to play left and right field if needed. He’s a bit of a gamble, but the Yankees got him for a steal so you have to be pretty happy with this deal. The Yankees will still go after Mark Texiera, but their need at first base isn’t as dire and I think the Pinstripers won’t be offering quite as much as they would have if the hadn’t acquired Swisher.