Little Going On, and it May Hurt the Yanks

There really hasn’t been much to report or comment on lately, which is what I’m going to comment on. No major signings, no major official offers, nothing. The rumor mill has been spinning and things don’t sound so hot for the Yankees right now. The Angels are rumored to be close to offering CC Sabathia a big time deal that comes close to the Yankees offer. From what I’ve read, the Yankees are going to have to significantly beat another teams offer to lure CC away from a team that’s higher on his list of preferences.

The Yankees’ rumored offers for AJ Burnett and Derek Lowe were apparently quite off the mark, with one wanting a longer deal and the other wanting more money.

Several teams have expressed interest in Mark Texiera and there certainly will be competition for his services. Boston’s interest is just a show and a ploy to drive up the price for the Yankees, but rumors of interest from other teams is more likely accurate.

Andy Pettitte has talked to the Dodgers, most likely trying to keep his options open if the Yankees don’t sign him and also in an effort to light a fire under the Yankees.

Once the dominos start to fall, there will be a rapid succession of signings. Most of the big deals probably center around CC Sabathia, as he is likely the biggest target out there. After he signs, the others will quickly follow.  If the Yankees sign him, they won’t go all in on Texiera and will try to get the best deal out of either Burnett or Lowe. If CC goes somewhere else, the Yankees will make Texiera a big offer and will turn up the heat trying to sign both Lowe and Burnett (or possibly making a trade for Peavey if he’s still available).

What could set things off kilter would be a team making a surprisingly big offer to someone like Burnett or Lowe before CC signs. The Yanks won’t sign anyone until CC is off the table and other clubs scrambling to get the remaining free agent pitchers available could up their offers quickly and the Yanks could get left out in the cold.

I think the prudent strategy would be to aggressively go after the players you want all at once, and do it before too many other teams get close to a deal. I’m a big fan of setting deadlines and letting players know they have a finite period of time to accept an offer (a reasonable period like a week or so). If a player says no, move on to the next target. The Yankees desperately need starting pitching, as do a few other teams. There are a few big names available this year, but the supply is far behind the demand.

I don’t expect any big deals today, and with Thanksgiving tomorrow, things will slow down for a while but I expect the first big deal to go down before Christmas.

2009 Free Agents

Just for kicks I thought I'd take a look at who will become a free agent at the end of the season. I'm listing all the important Yankees, and a few non-Yankees of interest.

First Base:

Jason Giambi*

Third Base:

Morgan Ensberg

Outfielders:

Bobby Abreu

Starting Pitchers:

Mike Mussina

Andy Pettitte

Relief Pitchers:

Kyle Farnsworth

LaTroy Hawkins

 

At first base, Mark Texiera will become available, and at 28 still has quite a few good years left in him. Several of the Yankees are getting a bit old at their position and might want to consider sliding over to first (Jeter, Posada). I don't see any way Giambi gets re-signed and wouldn't be surprised to see him get traded or cut if he continues to struggle. Also in the wings is Shelley Duncan, the utility OF/1B who has shown promise in the minor leagues but hasn't hit well in the majors this year.

Morgan Ensberg is more of a utility guy for the Yankees right now, and could get a better offer from someone else who wants to make him a starter. He is nice to have around, and currently adds more value to the team than Giambi. There are always youngsters like Eric Duncan and veterans like Cody Ransom ready to step in.

Bobby Abreu is an afterthought at this point. The Yanks already have too many outfielders and unless they trade someone, there's no need to keep Abreu around. Damon, Cabrera and Matsui can handle the job and guys like Duncan and Brett Gardner can fill in and you still have Tabata in the wings.

Mussina will likely be gone, Pettitte might sign on for another year if he holds up but the Yankees are going to need someone to fill in at least one spot. Assuming everything works out and Joba, Ian and Phil all come around as productive starters, Wang will still be an ace and then you've got one spot to fill. If Pettitte comes back you've got 5 but that's a lot of if's. Especially the way the staff is struggling right now, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Yanks pick someone up this year and then only re-signing Pettite if someone else doesn't work out.

I can't see the Yankees keeping Farnsworth around, despite Girardi's fascination with the hittable reliever. Hawkins is definitely gone. By next season Bruney should be healthy again and you've got Albaladejo,  Ohlendorf, Betances, Melancon and Patterson ready to take over.

There's a chance another minor league guy could be ready to try starting in the bigs. Darrel Rasner has been pitching well in the minors, but I see him as more of a long reliever. Jeff Marquez and Daniel McCutchen will get their shots eventually.

The Yankees have a lot of prospects that could play a role on next year's team. It would be hard to justify signing an overpriced veteran on the decline to a big contract when you've invested so much into bringing the young talent along. Then again, we're talking about the Yankees here, who am I kidding.