Rotation Shaping Up

The Yankees went out and got two high profile starting pitchers in CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett. The Rotation is definitely coming into focus now, but there is still work to be done. Right now you’ve got CM Wang, CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Joba Chamberlain. That’s four guys and the Yankees will have to come up with a fifth soon. Chamberlain is doubtful to last a full season as a starting pitcher in my estimation, and so the Yankees really need a six man rotation this year. That means two additional starters need to be found.

You’ve got Hughes and Kennedy available, and re-signing Pettitte is still on the table. Ideally, I’d like to see the Yanks go out and sign Derek Lowe. I’ve been high on him for a while now and am surprised he wasn’t a higher priority than Burnett. Somehow, I think the idea of the Yanks getting another big name guy is pretty low. Still, with Burnett’s injury history, and Chamberlain’s durability problems, it would make sense to me to get another reliable arm. Even CM Wang had injury trouble last year. I’m extremely worried that this year’s rotation is going to blow up due to injury and we’re left scrambling to bring up guys from the minors and having another off season.

Andy Pettitte is available but I can’t see signing him for too much money, or a long term deal. 1 year at 12 million or so sounds about right. Again, Derek Lowe would be my first priority, but I think that is unlikely. I’ve lost faith in Hughes and Kennedy and think each needs to spend a full year in AAA ball, but the likely outcome is that one of them will be in the starting rotation at the beginning of the season and the other will get a start before too long.

The Yankees don’t seem to be too active in the Texiera hunt and with Boras as his agent, I don’t blame them. The deal with the Brewers for Cameron is currently off, but this on again, off again saga fluctuates on a daily basis. Cameron isn’t a huge pickup and the only reason the Yanks were looking at this was to make CC Sabathia feel at home with a friend of his on the field.

Center field remains a bit of a problem with Cabrera and Gardner looking like the best options at the moment. I’m not sure there are too many better options available. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Yankees give up a little offensive production for some better defense, and I don’t have a problem with guys like Nick Swisher playing first. On the other hand, injury issues with guys like Matsui and Posada could be a bigger problem without enough other big bats around.

Last but not least, thank goodness they got rid of Betemit. He was just awful and Girardi seemed to love to play him for some reason.

Things are winding down for offseason moves, but I expect one to two more announcements before the spring, namely the signing of Pettitte and possibly a trade for a CF or unloading Kennedy or Cabrera.

CC Coming to Town

Finally this morning the news broke that CC Sabathia will be joining the New York Yankees. Apparently the deal is for 7 years and 160 million, approximately.

This is a big deal for the Yankees and Yankee fans. CC was dragging his feet and each day that went by it was looking more and more like he would sign somewhere else. The Yanks now officially have a healthy ace to lead off the rotation. If Wang stays healthy he’s their number two and Joba will be number three.

That leaves at least two more spots to fill. There have been rumors before the CC news that the Yanks were stepping up talks with Burnett and Lowe and that they had also been talking to Ben Sheets. The last I heard was that a better offer was made to Burnett and that the Yanks were close to a deal with Lowe. I don’t know how things will change now that Sabathia has been signed, but expect the Yankees to sign at least one of these guys.

Personally, I think Lowe should be the number one priority at this point. He’s the best value out there and the most consistent of the bunch. I’d look at Sheets a little more than Burnett as well. There hasn’t been much word on the Yankees and Andy Pettitte, and all the news concerning him is about talks with other teams.

I think the Yanks will try to sign two more starting pitchers, won’t go after Texiera hard any more, and will still shop around Cano, Cabrera and Kennedy for a center fielder or a utility infielder.

Little Going On, and it May Hurt the Yanks

There really hasn’t been much to report or comment on lately, which is what I’m going to comment on. No major signings, no major official offers, nothing. The rumor mill has been spinning and things don’t sound so hot for the Yankees right now. The Angels are rumored to be close to offering CC Sabathia a big time deal that comes close to the Yankees offer. From what I’ve read, the Yankees are going to have to significantly beat another teams offer to lure CC away from a team that’s higher on his list of preferences.

The Yankees’ rumored offers for AJ Burnett and Derek Lowe were apparently quite off the mark, with one wanting a longer deal and the other wanting more money.

Several teams have expressed interest in Mark Texiera and there certainly will be competition for his services. Boston’s interest is just a show and a ploy to drive up the price for the Yankees, but rumors of interest from other teams is more likely accurate.

Andy Pettitte has talked to the Dodgers, most likely trying to keep his options open if the Yankees don’t sign him and also in an effort to light a fire under the Yankees.

Once the dominos start to fall, there will be a rapid succession of signings. Most of the big deals probably center around CC Sabathia, as he is likely the biggest target out there. After he signs, the others will quickly follow.  If the Yankees sign him, they won’t go all in on Texiera and will try to get the best deal out of either Burnett or Lowe. If CC goes somewhere else, the Yankees will make Texiera a big offer and will turn up the heat trying to sign both Lowe and Burnett (or possibly making a trade for Peavey if he’s still available).

What could set things off kilter would be a team making a surprisingly big offer to someone like Burnett or Lowe before CC signs. The Yanks won’t sign anyone until CC is off the table and other clubs scrambling to get the remaining free agent pitchers available could up their offers quickly and the Yanks could get left out in the cold.

I think the prudent strategy would be to aggressively go after the players you want all at once, and do it before too many other teams get close to a deal. I’m a big fan of setting deadlines and letting players know they have a finite period of time to accept an offer (a reasonable period like a week or so). If a player says no, move on to the next target. The Yankees desperately need starting pitching, as do a few other teams. There are a few big names available this year, but the supply is far behind the demand.

I don’t expect any big deals today, and with Thanksgiving tomorrow, things will slow down for a while but I expect the first big deal to go down before Christmas.

Weekly Recap

Last week we finally had some action from the Yankees giving us a glimpse into what the future holds.

1. Darrel Rasner was sold to Japan. This one seemed a little odd to me at first. I liked Rasner and thought he did an excellent job for the Yankees when they needed him. He started out strong and had a very rough finish, but I thought he had value as a long reliever. Unfortunately, I get the feeling that teams in major league baseball just don’t see the need for long relievers any more. Joe Girardi last year made it clear that he didn’t want to waste roster space with a long reliever if he didn’t have to. In the end, I think this move came down to something Rasner really wanted to do, and the Yankees let him. Best of luck Darrel.

2. CC Sabathia given a huge offer. There have been a few complaints coming out of the Brewers organization that the Yankees overbid for Sabathia, but the Yankees have the money to spend and don’t want to waste time getting the players they covet the most. I don’t see the Sabathia offer as being too extravagant. A little more than he probably deserves but that’s exactly what you expect from the Yankees. There have also been rumors that the MLBPA has been pressuring CC to sign the deal to help push up contract prices for players, but that claim sounds dubious at best. I predict that CC will talk to one or two other clubs early this week and be signed with the Yanks by the weeks end.

3. The Yanks want to go after Lowe and Burnett. Hank Steinbrenner let the cat out of the bag that the Yankees were going to be making offers to three big name pitchers, not just one or two. Most people seem to think that the Yankees are interested in signing two quality free agent starters, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more than that if the team can come to terms with the players it wants. The Yankees’ rotation was beat up last year and injuries took their toll. Joba couldn’t handle the physical stress of being thrown into a full time starting job at the end of last season and it’s still questionable how many innings he can throw this year. Mussina might not want to come back and the Yankees might not want Pettitte back. The most likely scenario is that the Bombers pick up two new arms, but don’t rule out them getting all three of their targets.

4. Yanks acquire Swisher from White Sox. Finally Wilson Betemit is jettisoned. He was a drain on the team more than anything else. His offensive production was abysmal and his defense was suspect as well. Joe Girardi insisted on giving him playing time rather than getting young prospects the at bats and innings they deserved. Marquez had some potential but wasn’t necessarily a guaranteed big league player. Kanekoa Texiera has potential and could possibly end up playing at Yankee stadium some day and his inclusion in the deal is a little surprising. Nick Swisher showed potential early in his career and then went and had an awful year this past season. He’s billed as a Jason Giambi type of hitter, but not quite as good (which, considering Giambi’s performance last year, is pretty scary). The hope is that last year was a fluke and that Swisher will continue to develop and reach the potential many thought he once had. His defensive skills are a significant improvement over last year and I laud the Yankees for placing a little emphasis on defense rather than just offense. Swisher also has the flexibility to play left and right field if needed. He’s a bit of a gamble, but the Yankees got him for a steal so you have to be pretty happy with this deal. The Yankees will still go after Mark Texiera, but their need at first base isn’t as dire and I think the Pinstripers won’t be offering quite as much as they would have if the hadn’t acquired Swisher.

Meacham Let Go

According to Peter Abraham over at LoHud, Bobby Meacham will not be returning as the Yankees third base coach. Meacham had been criticized repeatedly by the media for several bad calls that cost the Yankees runs and games during the year. There’s a bit of a knack to being a third base coach and until this year, I never really realized how much a bad coach could cost a team. Unlike Peter, I’m not reading too much else into the move, especially regarding relations between Girardi and Cashman. Check out the full update over at LoHud for some names that might come up as replacements.

2009 Rotation

Let’s take a quick look at who was here this year and who could be here next year.

Guys who were around in 2008

Chien Ming Wang – Hopefully will be healthy and will anchor the rotation. Given his surgery this year, it’s not a given. If Wang can’t return to form, the Yankees are in trouble.

Joba Chamberlain – Can be the ace of the rotation if he stays healthy. There are definite issues about his endurance, and whether or not his body can handle the load of a starter. He’s got the stuff, but how long can he keep it up. If the Yankees manage to secure enough other talent, he could go back to being a starter with a few extra days off to limit his innings. If injuries become an issue, he becomes their set up man.

Mike Mussina – I don’t know if Mussina can repeat his 2008 performance or whether we’ll start seeing more of the horrendous outings he had at the beginning of the season. If he’s willing, I’d sign him and take a chance but it’s not a sure thing that he will return or that he can continue to pitch successfully. I think the best bet at this time if he does return is that he’ll fill out the back end of the rotation nicely.

Andy Pettitte – Andy has always been a favorite player of mine since day 1, but I think it’s time to retire. He could probably play another year or two but his numbers are only going to get worse. I think the Yankees will make him an offer and try to bring him back just to have another guy around, but I don’t think he’s a good fit for the team any more.

Darrel Rasner – A backup plan at best. Darrel had early success when he hit the rotation but after a while hitters started to figure him out and he became more of a liability. He could make the team as a long reliever, but Joe Girardi hasn’t gotten to the chapter on long relievers in Coaching Baseball 101 (sometimes I wonder if he’s ever even opened the book).

Dan Giese – Another possible long reliever.

Phil Hughes – Trade bait. If the Yankees could get a decent player in return for Hughes they had better jump at the opportunity. A lot of informed observers are suggesting the Yankees need to hold on to this guy because he still has star potential but I’m sticking with the opinion that he’s a total bust and a big liability given his injury history. I think the team will try to move Hughes but if not will continue to try and move him along and get him ready for the rotation. If things go well in the fall league and the Yankees still have Hughes come spring, he’ll be high on the list for the number five slot.

Ian Kennedy – I thought Ike would bring up the back end of the rotation this year and be a solid not-so-bad pitcher. Boy was I wrong. I think the Yankees will try to move him in the offseason and the organization isn’t as attached to him as they are Hughes. If there is interest in Kennedy, he’ll be gone but for now, I think Hughes is the main target for teams interested in trading with the Yanks.

Sidney Ponson – A temporary solution who won’t be around next year.

Carl Pavano – It had been suggested earlier that the Yanks should pick up Pavano’s option and use him for a year if healthy. I don’t see any chance of that happening. So long Carl.

New Faces

CC Sabathia – Number one on the list of players the Yanks would like to get but will come at a hefty price. It’s all going to come down to two things, the number of years and the number of dollars he wants. There is a strong possibility that another team may step in and actually outspend the Yankees to land him. Right now I say it’s 50-50 for CC to land in the Bronx.

Jake Peavey – There has been a few mild rumors about the Yankees working a trade for Peavey and for my money, he should be the number one target for the rotation. I think the chances are pretty slim that he’ll end up in NY, but it’s definitely a possibility worth exploring.

AJ Burnett – I’m not all that excited about this one but I expect the Yanks to look into acquiring him.

Betances, Brackman, Marquez and others – I just haven’t heard enough buzz about any of the prospects being ready for the majors yet. Brackman needs time to rediscover his stuff after the surgery and the others could be brought up mid-year, but I don’t think they’ll be given serious consideration during the spring. Also, these guys could be packaged up in a deal to acquire a veteran starter or center fielder. I expect the farm system to take a hit this offseason as the Yankees ship off a few young guys in order to make some trades for veterans who can help the team out immediately in 2009.